The Indian rupee managed a slight recovery on Tuesday after a historic tumble the day before, closing at 86.62 against the dollar—a modest 8 paise gain. But don’t mistake this for a comeback story just yet. The currency remains under pressure, buffeted by elevated crude prices, relentless foreign fund outflows, and a surge in dollar demand from maturing non-deliverable forward (NDF) positions. Tuesday’s session saw the rupee touch an intra-day low of 86.6475 before finding its feet, thanks to what looked like Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention. State-run banks were spotted selling dollars—likely on the RBI’s behalf—keeping the rupee from a free fall. Foreign banks chipped in too, helping temper the storm. On Monday, the rupee suffered its steepest one-day drop in nearly two years, plunging 66 paise to a historic low of 86.70. This dramatic fall mirrors a broader story: the dollar’s relentless climb, fueled by fading bets on US Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index, though slightly off its two-year peak, still hovers at a robust 109.5, applying pressure across Asian currencies. Crude oil’s gyrations in the $77 range and fresh domestic buying in PSU stocks did lend the rupee a bit of support. According to Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities, the trading range for the rupee is likely between 86.25 and 86.85 in the short term, with domestic developments and global cues holding the key. The RBI, for its part, appears cautious with its forex reserves, choosing targeted interventions to steady the ship rather than a full-blown defense. Meanwhile, traders are keeping a close eye on US inflation data due later this week—a potential wildcard for the rupee’s next move.