IndiaMART Sees a Turnaround as JM Financial Upgrades Stock to Buy

IndiaMART InterMESH is finally catching a break after enduring a rough four-month stretch, with its stock plunging 22%. Brokerage JM Financial has shifted gears, upgrading the stock from Sell to Buy. The shift comes as the firm sees potential in the platform’s long-term growth despite recent setbacks, including sluggish collections and weak paying supplier additions. JM Financial points to a sharp deceleration in collections growth, just 5% year-on-year in Q2FY25, and six quarters of muted supplier additions as the primary reasons for the stock’s earlier downturn. While Q3FY25 metrics are unlikely to show dramatic improvement, the brokerage anticipates a recovery in standalone collections growth, expecting low-teens growth in the medium term. Meanwhile, EBITDA margins are projected to remain robust at 34-36%, thanks to minimal growth-related investments. The firm acknowledges ongoing challenges in paying supplier growth, a key metric that has struggled since Q1FY24. Despite these hurdles, deferred revenue should push overall revenue growth to 15.5% year-on-year in Q3FY25, offsetting lackluster collections. On the cost side, reductions in sales incentives and servicing costs could provide a boost, with EBITDA margins projected to climb by eight percentage points year-on-year and consolidated EBITDA expected to expand by a robust 50%. Looking further ahead, JM Financial forecasts collections growth stabilizing in the low-to-mid teens, down from the platform’s historical CAGR of over 20%.

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