Santa Claus Rally Lights Up U.S. Equity Funds Amid Cooler Inflation

U.S. equity funds are basking in some much-needed holiday cheer, pulling in $20.56 billion in the week leading to Dec. 25. This rebound follows last week’s massive $49.7 billion sell-off, thanks to a cocktail of investor optimism: cooling inflation, a stopgap funding bill that dodged a government shutdown. However, small-cap, mid-cap, and multi-cap funds experienced a total outflow of almost $5 billion, with investors gravitating toward the perceived safety and stability offered by large-cap stocks. U.S. bond funds recorded their second straight week of outflows, totaling $5.42 billion. Meanwhile, the real surprise came from U.S. money market funds, which snapped up a hefty $41.72 billion in net inflows. As the year wraps up, all eyes are on how long this seasonal glow will last. Will the Federal Reserve deliver the rate cuts investors are betting on, or is this rally just a brief holiday reprieve?

Tiny Player, Big Moves in the PVDC Game

Creative Graphics Solutions India just shook things up. Shares of the micro-cap company jumped as much as 7% in Friday’s session, settling at ₹201.55, a 2.4% increase from the previous close. With a market cap of ₹490 crore and a respectable 15% return over the past year, this niche manufacturer is now eyeing a slice of the PVDC pie. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Wahren India Private Limited, is stepping into the PVDC (Polyvinylidene Chloride) segment after acquiring some serious machinery. For ₹2.6 crore, Wahren scooped up a PVDC coating machine and a Moccon MVTR/OTR testing setup from Radha Madhav Corporation. Creative Graphics Solutions specializes in Digital and Conventional Flexo Plates, Letter Press Plates, Metal Back Plates, and more. These are the unsung heroes behind printing on labels, paper bags, cartons, and everything in between. Financially, Creative Graphics has been on a roll. Revenue skyrocketed 136%, climbing from ₹48 crore in H1FY24 to ₹113 crore in H1FY25, with profits growing from ₹7 crore to ₹9 crore. While modest, its return on equity (ROE) at 13.46% and return on capital employed (ROCE) at 13.35% are solid for its scale. The debt-to-equity ratio sits at a manageable 0.76, signaling that it’s playing it smart with its leverage.

Adani Enterprises Sparks Market Buzz

Adani Enterprises Limited (AEL) added a spark to Friday’s trading session, with shares climbing 1.66% to hit ₹2,446.15, following the acquisition of a 26% stake in Gidhmuri Paturia Collieries Private Limited (GPCPL). This move adds yet another feather to the cap of the Adani flagship company, already a heavyweight in infrastructure, energy, and logistics, with a market cap of ₹2.77 lakh crore. AEL bought 2,600 equity shares, valued at ₹10 each, from Sainik Mining and Allied Services Limited, making GPCPL a fully-owned subsidiary. This acquisition positions AEL to further cement its foothold in coal and mineral mining, aligning with its broader strategy of driving growth across diverse industries. Financially, Adani Enterprises isn’t just holding steady—it’s accelerating. Q2 FY24-25 saw revenues tick up slightly to ₹23,196 crore, but the real highlight was the net profit, skyrocketing from ₹227.82 crore to ₹1,741.75 crore. With a return on equity (RoE) of 13.31% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.92, AEL remains a juggernaut in India’s corporate landscape, even amid global scrutiny of its debt levels.

India’s Path to Cleaner Energy and Economic Growth

India is betting big on ethanol, aiming to transform its energy sector while addressing environmental concerns and bolstering rural economies. By fast-tracking the target for 20% ethanol blending in petrol (E20) to 2025, the government has signaled a strong commitment to cleaner energy solutions. The stakes are high, and so are the opportunities—but the road ahead isn’t without bumps. Why the ethanol push? It’s simple: reducing dependence on imported crude oil, which feeds 85% of India’s petroleum demand, saves precious foreign exchange and cuts harmful emissions. From a mere 1.5% ethanol blend in 2014 to 15% in 2024, the Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) program has already saved over ₹1,06,072 crore in forex and slashed CO₂ emissions by 544 lakh tonnes. Not bad for a decade’s work. The National Policy on Biofuels (2018) turbocharged this movement, allowing ethanol to be produced from sugarcane juice, surplus grains, and even agricultural residues. Fixed ethanol procurement prices, while providing stability, aren’t keeping pace with skyrocketing raw material costs. Grain-based distilleries, which depend on rice and maize, are feeling the pinch. Over the past year, broken rice prices jumped to ₹28/kg (up from ₹22.5/kg), while maize prices surged to ₹26/kg (from ₹21/kg). These rising costs are squeezing margins, and with falling byproduct prices, like those of DDGS, some producers are teetering on the edge of financial viability.

ICEX’s Exit from the Exchange Business

The Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) has officially exited the exchange business, with market regulator Sebi withdrawing its recognition through a notification dated December 24. This move follows a drawn-out process that began over two years ago when ICEX’s recognition was first revoked for failing to meet regulatory requirements. The exchange’s exit was greenlit after it fulfilled Sebi’s demands, including compliance reviews, valuation reports, and undertakings. ICEX, headquartered in Surat, Gujarat, made its debut in the commodity trading market in 2009, gaining permanent recognition under the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952. After the Forward Markets Commission merged into Sebi in 2015, ICEX transitioned into a recognized exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. However, by 2022, cracks in its operations became impossible to ignore. ICEX shareholders passed a resolution in May 2023, signaling the end of the road. Sebi then initiated the exit process, which concluded with this final notification.

Panacea Biotec – A Boost from UNICEF’s Polio Vaccine Order

Panacea Biotec shares got a healthy boost, climbing nearly 5% to ₹456 after scoring a ₹127 crore (US$ 14.95 million) order from UNICEF for 115 million doses of its bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV). Set for delivery in 2025, these vaccines will support immunization efforts across Africa and Asia. This announcement comes as a much-needed win for the company, which recently posted a ₹4.8 crore profit for Q2 FY2024 after three straight quarters of red ink. Revenue jumped 27.18% quarter-on-quarter—the biggest leap in three years—showcasing a strong rebound in operations. Zooming out, Panacea has been a long-term performer, delivering a stellar 126.6% return over three years, outpacing the Nifty Smallcap 100’s 72.66% rise. With a market cap of ₹2,653.69 crore and nearly four decades in the pharma game, this small-cap player continues to punch above its weight. UNICEF’s nod signals more than just a business win; it’s a vote of confidence in Panacea’s capabilities on the global stage. Investors seem to agree, as the stock reflects optimism for what’s ahead.

India Mulls Tax Break for Middle Class

The Indian government is toying with a plan to ease the tax burden on the middle class in the upcoming February budget. Word on the street is that it could reduce income tax for individuals earning up to 1.5 million rupees ($17,590) annually. To provide some much-needed financial relief and boost consumption as the economy shows signs of slowing down. This move could be a game-changer for millions of taxpayers, particularly those living in cities, where the cost of living has been steadily rising. But there’s a catch: the tax cut would only apply to those who opt for the 2020 tax system, which does away with certain exemptions, like housing rental deductions. In this system, income ranging from 300,000 to 1.5 million rupees is taxed at rates between 5% and 20%, with any amount exceeding that subject to a flat 30% tax. It’s a simpler but less forgiving framework than the older one, which allows for more deductions but at higher tax rates. India’s income tax revenue largely comes from the wealthier few, particularly those earning over 10 million rupees a year, who pay the highest tax rate of 30%. But with growth slowing—India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in seven quarters between July and September—and inflation squeezing urban consumers, the government may see this as a way to inject some life into the economy.

NTPC Green Energy Drops 6% as Lock-In Period for Anchor Investors Ends

NTPC Green Energy’s shares faced a sharp dip of nearly 6% in early Thursday trading, dropping to ₹125.20 on the BSE. The sell-off comes as the one-month lock-in period for anchor investors expired, unlocking 1.83 crore shares, representing a 2% stake in the company, for trading. Despite this unlock, it’s important to note that the expiration of a lock-in period simply allows trading eligibility and doesn’t imply that all shares will be sold immediately. NTPC Green Energy, listed on November 29, saw a modest market debut at ₹111.5 on the NSE—just 3.2% above its issue price of ₹108. On the BSE, it began trading at ₹111.6, marking a 3.33% premium. Since then, the renewable energy stock has risen over 23% from its issue price and nearly 19% from its listing price. The IPO, held between November 19-22, raised ₹10,000 crore via fresh equity shares at a price band of ₹102-108 per share. Preceding this, the company secured ₹3,960 crore from anchor investors. The offering drew strong interest, with 2.55 times subscription and bids for 142.65 crore shares against 56 crore on offer.

India Eyes 6.5% Growth Amid Global Challenges

India’s economy is charting a steady course, with growth projected at around 6.5% for fiscal 2024/25, as per the government’s announcement on Thursday. This figure leans toward the lower end of its earlier estimate of 6.5%-7%, reflecting caution amidst global uncertainties. The finance ministry’s November report painted a mixed picture. On one hand, there’s optimism: robust rural demand and a surge in urban spending during October and November have brightened the outlook for the December quarter. On the other, growth for July to September lagged expectations, thanks to weaker-than-hoped performance in manufacturing and consumption. Despite the hiccups, India remains confident about hitting its 6.5%-7% target—still an enviable pace in today’s economic climate. The ministry predicts it’ll outshine the first six months. For now, India’s growth story balances resilience with caution. While global headwinds loom, the country’s fundamentals suggest it’s still navigating turbulent waters with skill.

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