The Chinese AI startup, which has been quietly working on its AI models since 2023, shocked investors this weekend when its DeepSeek R1 chatbot app rocketed to the top of global download charts. In the blink of an eye, it wiped out a staggering $108 billion from the combined fortunes of the world’s 500 wealthiest individuals. Nvidia co-founder Jensen Huang bore the brunt of this hit, seeing his net worth drop by a sharp 20%, or $20.1 billion, as the tech sector reeled from the news. In the world of AI and big data, where billions are often thrown at developing cutting-edge systems, DeepSeek’s low-budget, $5.6 million R1 app challenged the idea that massive capital was required to build the most advanced models. Oracle’s Larry Ellison lost $22.6 billion—though, in relative terms, that was a smaller hit to his fortune. Others were similarly impacted: Michael Dell saw $13 billion vanish from his pocket, and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao lost $12.1 billion. In total, tech billionaires took a beating to the tune of $94 billion, nearly 85% of the overall drop among the richest. Stocks took a hit, too—the Nasdaq tumbled 3.1%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%. Though companies like Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft have raked in billions from AI, their own pricey investments haven’t translated into profits just yet. The tech giants, who’ve spent colossal sums to race ahead in AI, are now forced to contend with a startup that’s offering similar results on a shoestring budget.
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ACC Shares Slide Despite Solid Q3 Numbers
ACC’s stock continued its downward spiral for a second day, dipping 1.3% on January 28 to ₹1,968 per share. From a high of ₹2,028 earlier in the session, the stock lost 3%, extending Monday’s weakness after the release of its Q3 financials. Despite the slip, ACC reported remarkable growth in the quarter, fueled by one-time gains such as a ₹640 crore excise duty refund and a ₹530 crore interest provision reversal. Brokerage firms remain divided on the stock’s outlook. CLSA reaffirmed its ‘Outperform’ rating with a target price of ₹2,580, while Nomura stuck to its ‘Reduce’ rating, citing a target of ₹1,920. Other firms like Investec and Morgan Stanley issued ‘Hold’ and ‘Equal Weight’ ratings, with targets of ₹2,845 and ₹2,510, respectively. ACC posted a consolidated net profit of ₹1,091 crore for Q3FY25, more than doubling last year’s ₹538 crore, and surging 446.8% sequentially. Revenue climbed 7.25% YoY to ₹5,207 crore—its best Q3 revenue in five years—driven by an 11% rise in trade sales and a 32% contribution from premium products. However, adjusted figures told a more sobering story. Excluding one-offs, EBITDA plunged 48% YoY to ₹470 crore, and PAT fell 57% to ₹230 crore. Operational efficiencies were a silver lining. ACC reduced kiln fuel costs by 10%, thanks to synergies with Adani group companies, and trimmed logistics expenses by 9%. The company also improved its fuel mix by incorporating low-cost imported petcoke and optimizing coal consumption. EBITDA margins slightly improved to 18.8% from 18.4% a year ago.
FPI Exodus Drags Markets as Global and Domestic Uncertainty Mounts
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have kept the selling spree alive, offloading a staggering ₹5,015 crore from Indian equities on January 27. With this, total outflows for January 2025 have soared to ₹74,095 crore, marking the steepest monthly sell-off since October 2024, when FPIs pulled out ₹1.14 lakh crore. The drivers behind this exodus are a mix of global and domestic uncertainties. Concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including potential tariffs on Columbia, Canada, and Mexico, coupled with fears of fewer U.S. Fed rate cuts in 2025, have rattled investor sentiment. Despite domestic institutional investors stepping in with net purchases of ₹73,586 crore to cushion the blow, it wasn’t enough to halt the slide. The Nifty 50 and Sensex are down 12% from their September peaks, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Midcap 100 indices have plunged by 20% and 15.31%, respectively. Brokerages are starting to recalibrate expectations. InCred Equities recently slashed its Nifty 50 target by 8% to 23,260, reflecting weaker economic data and earnings revisions. In a bearish scenario, it predicts the index could tumble further to 21,016. Looking ahead, market sentiment hinges on two major events this week: the U.S. Fed’s policy decision and the Indian Union Budget. Hopes are pinned on fiscal stimulus measures, particularly income tax cuts, to provide a much-needed boost.
SpiceJet Takes Off as Grounded 737 MAX Returns to the Skies
SpiceJet finally got some lift on Tuesday, with shares climbing nearly 7% during intraday trading. Airline has reintroduced its first grounded Boeing 737 MAX aircraft back into service, a move announced late Monday. Investor sentiment rallied, with the stock opening at ₹44.48 on the BSE—up 1.4% from Monday’s close—and soaring to an intraday high of ₹46.90. For a stock that’s been nosediving from September highs of ₹79.90 to a 52-week low of ₹43.61 just days ago, this fleet update is a welcome breather. The return of the fuel-efficient MAX aircraft marks a critical milestone in SpiceJet’s efforts to rebuild its fleet and streamline operations. The plane is set to take to the skies on January 29, 2025, and will serve high-demand routes like Jeddah and Riyadh without operational restrictions, potentially boosting both revenue and efficiency. To ensure its MAX fleet is ready for action, SpiceJet has inked partnerships with U.S.-based StandardAero Inc. for engine maintenance and CFM International, Inc., the OEM for the LEAP-1B engines. This marks the first step in the airline’s broader plan to restore 10 aircraft, including four Boeing 737 MAX planes, by mid-April 2025.
Kaynes Technology Takes a Hit After Trimming FY25 Guidance
Tuesday wasn’t kind to Kaynes Technology. Shares tumbled over 19% after the company slashed its FY25 revenue guidance to ₹2,800 crore from an earlier projection of ₹3,000 crore. The blame is in execution delays in the December quarter that left ₹100 crore worth of industrial orders unfinished. The management, however, expects most of these pending orders to be wrapped up this quarter, offering a glimmer of hope. Despite the stumble, Kaynes had some numbers to cheer about. The third quarter of FY25 saw a 47% surge in profit after tax (PAT), hitting ₹66.5 crore. Revenue also jumped 30% year-on-year to ₹661.2 crore, while EBITDA (excluding other income) rose by 35% to ₹94 crore. Margins edged up too, with the EBITDA margin hitting 14.2%, up 50 basis points from the previous year, and PAT margin climbing 120 basis points to 10.1%. The long-term story still looks ambitious. The company projects FY26 revenue of ₹4,500 crore with margins expected to top 15%. Their order book, sitting at a hefty ₹60,471 million as of December 31, 2024, promises solid revenue visibility. Even the net working capital cycle has improved, shrinking to 107 days from 117 days a year ago.
India’s Cash Crunch Sparks Central Bank Action and Market Optimism
The Reserve Bank of India has thrown a lifeline to the financial system, and markets are loving it. After announcing an $18 billion cash infusion late Monday to tackle the worst liquidity crunch in over a decade, both bonds and stocks rallied, with banking heavyweights like ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank leading the charge. The RBI’s move has reignited hopes of a rate cut as early as February 7, with analysts now betting on an easier monetary policy stance to support an economy growing at its slowest pace in four years. This cash injection isn’t just about plugging liquidity holes; it’s setting the stage for smoother policy transmission when rate cuts begin. Lower bond yields, cheaper borrowing costs—it’s all part of the package. On Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year benchmark bond fell four basis points to 6.64%, while the rupee took a slight hit, underscoring the delicate balance the central bank is managing. Big players like Goldman Sachs and Citibank wasted no time revising their forecasts. Goldman now expects a quarter-point rate cut next week, followed by another in April. Standard Chartered also shifted its call for a rate cut forward, signaling confidence that the RBI’s liquidity boost is more than a short-term fix.
Swiggy’s Downward Spiral as Competition Heats Up
Swiggy’s stock is feeling the heat, slipping another 5% on Tuesday to hit a fresh 52-week low. This marks the third straight day of losses, with the stock already down over 26% this month alone. It’s now trading below its IPO price of ₹390, scraping an intraday low of ₹389.25. Compare that to its December high of ₹617, and we’re looking at a 37% tumble in just over a month. The pressure ramped up after Zomato, Swiggy’s biggest rival, revealed its December quarter numbers last week. While Zomato’s revenue soared 64% year-on-year, its profits nosedived by 57%, largely due to aggressive investments in its quick-commerce arm, Blinkit. The move is bold—Zomato plans to scale up to 2,000 dark stores ahead of schedule—but it’s also a cash guzzler, which hasn’t done much to lift investor confidence in the sector. Swiggy’s silence isn’t helping either. With no word yet on its own December quarter results, market sentiment is running cold. Analysts have mixed feelings—JPMorgan sees Swiggy bouncing back with a ₹730 target price, while HSBC remains cautious with a “Hold” and a ₹550 target. What’s clear is that Swiggy is now trading at a steep discount compared to Zomato on key valuation metrics, which some call overly pessimistic.
Indian Stock Market on 27.01.25
The ongoing correction in the small-cap space highlights the market’s sensitivity to high valuations and lackluster earnings, with analysts warning of further downside risks unless a positive trigger emerges.
Indian Pharma Stocks Tumble as US Freezes Foreign Aid, Raising Concerns Over ARV Revenues
Indian pharmaceutical stocks supplying antiretroviral (ARV) drugs to African countries faced a sharp sell-off on January 27, following a US government order halting all foreign aid funding for 90 days, including the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). This program, crucial for HIV treatment in around 50 countries, many in Africa, faces an uncertain future under the executive order issued by President Donald Trump. PEPFAR funding accounts for a significant share of global HIV treatment, with US HIV spending constituting 44% of its total global health funding in FY24, according to Brookings. The halt has cast doubt on the revenue streams of Indian pharma companies reliant on US-backed ARV sales. Laurus Labs, whose ARV business comprises 46% of total revenue, saw its shares plummet nearly 15%, hitting a two-month low despite strong Q3 results. Other pharma players with ARV exposure, including Strides Pharma, Aurobindo Pharma, and Cipla, also witnessed declines. The Nifty Pharma index fell 2.65% on Monday. For Aurobindo Pharma, ARV sales contribute just 3% of revenue, approximately ₹868 crore in FY24, while Cipla has reduced its ARV exposure in recent years. With the ARV market valued at $1.5 billion annually, industry watchers will monitor developments closely, particularly as Indian pharma companies navigate this temporary freeze amidst efforts to diversify revenue sources and reduce dependence on foreign aid-driven sales.
Wall Street and European Markets Slide as China’s AI Challenger Shakes Big Tech
Wall Street took a significant hit on January 27, with Big Tech stocks leading the downturn amid concerns about a potential AI competitor from China. The Nasdaq composite plunged 3.1%, weighed down by Nvidia’s staggering 16% drop. Nvidia, a key supplier of AI chips, saw its stock fall 12.3% in premarket trading as investors reacted to the rise of DeepSeek—a low-cost, Chinese AI model disrupting the market. DeepSeek has quickly become the top-rated free app on Apple’s App Store in the US, overtaking competitors like ChatGPT. What sets it apart is its ability to deliver robust AI capabilities using lower-cost chips and significantly less data. Developed with an investment of just $5.6 million, the DeepSeek-V3 model challenges the massive spending strategies of US tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet, all of whom have committed billions to AI research and infrastructure. This sudden shake-up raises concerns about the sustainability of heavy AI investments, as DeepSeek’s cost-efficient model could upend the anticipated dominance of US tech firms. The potential for reduced demand along the AI supply chain rattled chipmakers and data center providers alike. The ripple effects extended to European markets, where the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.8%, with tech stocks dropping 3.4%—marking their largest single-day decline since October. Semiconductor firms like ASML and ASM International took heavy hits, sliding 7% and 12%, respectively. Siemens Energy and Schneider Electric, both suppliers of hardware for AI infrastructure, saw their shares plunge 19.9% and 9.5%.