PVR Inox Faces Pressure but Analysts See Recovery Potential

Shares of PVR Inox, India’s largest multiplex operator, have been under heavy selling pressure, falling 30% in the last six weeks and plunging 37% from a September high of ₹1,748 to ₹1,100. The stock hit its lowest level since April 2021, shrinking the company’s market cap from ₹16,553 crore to just ₹11,000 crore in four months. The decline stems from disappointing Q3FY24 results and concerns over the HMPV virus. However, analysts at JM Financial suggest much of the selling was technical, driven by arbitrage funds that exited trades as spreads narrowed due to weaker box office (BO) performances and PVR Inox’s exclusion from F&O. With arbitrage fund holdings now below 1%, the technical drag seems to have subsided. Despite a 3% drop in 2024’s ₹118 billion BO collection—impacted by Hollywood strikes, a quiet Bollywood calendar, and events like the T20 World Cup—JM Financial remains optimistic about 2025. The Hollywood slate is packed with blockbusters like Jurassic Park, Avatar, and Marvel films, while Bollywood megastars return with Sikandar and Sitare Zameen Par. JM Financial expects growth to rebound and has set a revised price target of ₹1,600, indicating a 45% upside from the current price. Geojit Financial Services echoes this optimism, upgrading the stock to a ‘buy’ with a target price of ₹1,437. Ventura Securities, meanwhile, remains bullish with a target of ₹2,657, highlighting the potential for long-term recovery. Though challenges remain, analysts believe the stock is attractively valued, with a promising pipeline poised to rekindle growth. For investors willing to weather short-term volatility, PVR Inox may present an opportunity for significant gains.

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