FPI Exodus Drags Markets as Global and Domestic Uncertainty Mounts

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have kept the selling spree alive, offloading a staggering ₹5,015 crore from Indian equities on January 27. With this, total outflows for January 2025 have soared to ₹74,095 crore, marking the steepest monthly sell-off since October 2024, when FPIs pulled out ₹1.14 lakh crore. The drivers behind this exodus are a mix of global and domestic uncertainties. Concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including potential tariffs on Columbia, Canada, and Mexico, coupled with fears of fewer U.S. Fed rate cuts in 2025, have rattled investor sentiment. Despite domestic institutional investors stepping in with net purchases of ₹73,586 crore to cushion the blow, it wasn’t enough to halt the slide. The Nifty 50 and Sensex are down 12% from their September peaks, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Midcap 100 indices have plunged by 20% and 15.31%, respectively. Brokerages are starting to recalibrate expectations. InCred Equities recently slashed its Nifty 50 target by 8% to 23,260, reflecting weaker economic data and earnings revisions. In a bearish scenario, it predicts the index could tumble further to 21,016. Looking ahead, market sentiment hinges on two major events this week: the U.S. Fed’s policy decision and the Indian Union Budget. Hopes are pinned on fiscal stimulus measures, particularly income tax cuts, to provide a much-needed boost.

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